# Paper Trading Status Review Playbook

Use when the user asks for the current status, trend, whether to adjust strategy, or how much longer until live.

## Minimum evidence to gather

1. **Runtime mode and process liveness**
   - Check active bot processes and uptime.
   - Inspect representative process environment for `CTB_PAPER_TRADING`, `CTB_DRY_RUN`, `CTB_STRATEGY_ID`, `CTB_RUNTIME_DIR`, max trades, hard stop, and delivery topic.
   - Report clearly whether this is paper, dry-run, or live. In paper mode: `dry_run=false` + `paper_trading=true` means simulated execution only, not exchange orders.

2. **Code/test health**
   - Run the relevant unit test suite before giving confidence claims.
   - Note git branch/dirty/ahead state if code changes or deployment readiness are discussed.

3. **Aggregate per-strategy journals**
   - For every `experiments/<strategy_id>/Tradeanalyse/trade_journal.jsonl`, compute:
     - entries, closed exits, realized PnL, wins/losses, win rate, profit factor
     - last event timestamp
     - coin distribution for entries
   - Rank by risk-adjusted signals, not just total PnL.

4. **Open exposure must be real, not inferred loosely**
   - Do not count every key under `paper_state.positions` as open.
   - Only count a position as open when `abs(contracts) > 0` or equivalent non-zero exposure exists.
   - Cross-check journal open count (`entries - exits`) against paper state; explain mismatches.

5. **Trend and adjustment guidance**
   - Separate promising candidates from research-only/blocked samplers.
   - Flag coin leakage when positive PnL is concentrated in one coin (for example WLD-heavy results).
   - Recommend pausing/downranking strategies with enough negative sample and low profit factor, but avoid parameter changes from tiny samples.

## Live-readiness language

Use conservative gates:

- Fewer than ~5 closed trades: observations only.
- Around 20 trades: candidate signal at most; still not live-ready if coin-concentrated.
- Before live-preview: require a scorecard covering sample size, win rate, profit factor, realized + unrealized PnL, max drawdown, consecutive losses, coin leakage, average risk, and blockers.
- For a planned wallet, discuss risk-per-trade and daily loss limits, not just observed paper notional.

## Suggested concise response shape

- **Status now**: mode, liveness, tests, open positions.
- **Trend**: top positive candidates and clear losers.
- **Adjustments**: what to continue, pause, or downrank.
- **Live answer**: yes/no and why.
- **How much longer / margin**: give ranges and risk limits, explicitly noting whether the user likely meant time or margin if ambiguous.