# Fee-aware Anti-chase Paper Challenger

Timestamp: 2026-06-13 11:20 Europe/Zurich

## Purpose

Paper-only challenger to replace the failed tiny-live breakout behavior. It blocks chasing overextended breakouts and only accepts primary-coin retest/reclaim setups whose expected edge clears realistic round-trip costs.

## Safety

- Strategy ID: `candidate_v76_fee_aware_anti_chase`
- Mode: paper only
- Mainnet signed actions: false
- Live restart recommendation: no
- Live entries remain blocked by current kill-switch/state until separate approval and a positive out-of-sample sample.

## Implemented gates

- Primary coins only: BTC, ETH, SOL, LINK
- Reject overextended 15m/1h moves without meaningful pullback/retest
- Require retest hold above fast/slow SMA proxy
- Require market breadth >= 4 and relative-strength rank <= 3
- Require liquidity >= 25M 24h proxy
- Fee/slippage/funding-aware hurdle: expected edge must be >= 4x realistic round-trip cost
- Position sizing remains small paper sizing, no live executor path

## Verification

- Focused tests: `11 passed in 0.14s`
- Full suite: `198 passed in 6.80s`
- Compile check: clean

## Hyperliquid live fill-history evaluation since 2026-06-08

- Status: edge_failure
- Closed fills: 20
- Wins/losses: 2 / 18
- Win rate: 10.00%
- Closed PnL: -1.865356 USDC
- Fees in evaluated closed rows: 0.096805 USDC
- Net after fees: -1.962161 USDC
- Short-hold net PnL: -0.588506 USDC
- Top coin: SOL at 30.00%
- Blockers: sample_too_small, net_pnl_negative_after_fees, win_rate_below_gate, short_holds_negative
- Recommendation: keep_live_entries_blocked

## One-shot recent-market paper scan

- Signals seen: 8
- Paper trades simulated: 4
- Blocked: 4
- Entered: BTC, ETH, SOL, LINK
- Blocked: WLD, SUI, ENA, BCH
- Expected move vs cost on accepted signals: 11.52x
- Journal: `runtime/experiments/candidate_v76_fee_aware_anti_chase/`

## Ongoing paper collection

- Started: yes
- PID: 189592
- Duration: 360 iterations × 60s (~6h)
- Env verified: `CTB_STRATEGY_ID=candidate_v76_fee_aware_anti_chase`, `CTB_PAPER_TRADING=true`, `CTB_DRY_RUN=false`
- Supervisor status: running=true, env_ok=true

## Next gate before any live discussion

Run this challenger as paper/shadow only until it has at least 30-50 closed paper trades with positive net-after-fees, acceptable win rate/profit factor, no short-hold negative pattern, and no coin concentration. No live restart from this one-shot scan.