# Trade Timing Analysis

Strategy: `candidate_v76_fee_aware_anti_chase`
Mode: read-only chart/timing analysis, interval `15m`, window ±4h/4h

## Summary
- Events analyzed: 298 (151 entries, 147 exits)
- Quality counts: {'neutral': 50, 'bad': 171, 'good': 77}
- Flag counts: {'exit_good_profit_protection': 59, 'entry_poor_immediate_adverse_excursion': 58, 'exit_too_early_missed_followthrough': 46, 'entry_overbought_rsi': 42, 'entry_likely_chased_after_pre_move': 42, 'exit_into_overbought_strength': 42, 'exit_possible_stop_too_tight_or_bad_entry': 41, 'entry_good_follow_through': 36, 'exit_good_stop_avoided_more_downside': 10}

## Learnings
- tighten_anti_chase: require pullback/reclaim after strong pre-entry move
- improve_entry_timing: wait for confirmation candle or reduce stop distance risk
- separate_stop_problem_from_entry_problem: check whether stop was tight or entry was late
- test_trailing_exit: partial take-profit plus trailing stop may retain upside
- keep_profit_target_as_protection_when_post_exit_drawdown_is_common

## Entries
- 2026-06-30T12:48:47.650750+00:00 LINK entry=7.16035 quality=neutral pre=-2.0109% post=0.3694% MFE=1.5411% MAE=-0.5482% RSI=17.92 pattern=normal_candle flags=[]
- 2026-06-30T14:03:34.136004+00:00 LINK entry=7.246 quality=bad pre=-0.4260% post=-0.7590% MFE=0.1283% MAE=-1.6864% RSI=44.25 pattern=normal_candle flags=['entry_poor_immediate_adverse_excursion']
- 2026-06-30T14:57:42.679575+00:00 LINK entry=7.15915 quality=neutral pre=-1.5339% post=0.8835% MFE=0.9938% MAE=-0.4938% RSI=37.93 pattern=normal_candle flags=[]
- 2026-07-01T02:37:12.655977+00:00 LINK entry=7.24215 quality=bad pre=1.1369% post=-0.5751% MFE=1.3000% MAE=-0.7353% RSI=63.74 pattern=normal_candle flags=['entry_likely_chased_after_pre_move']
- 2026-07-01T14:12:29.663168+00:00 LINK entry=7.34455 quality=bad pre=1.9261% post=0.5249% MFE=1.5447% MAE=-0.5930% RSI=78.99 pattern=normal_candle flags=['entry_likely_chased_after_pre_move', 'entry_overbought_rsi']
- 2026-07-01T15:24:17.658477+00:00 LINK entry=7.44985 quality=bad pre=2.8544% post=-1.0987% MFE=-0.0919% MAE=-1.3242% RSI=78.88 pattern=normal_candle flags=['entry_likely_chased_after_pre_move', 'entry_overbought_rsi', 'entry_poor_immediate_adverse_excursion']
- 2026-07-01T17:05:26.281397+00:00 LINK entry=7.35595 quality=good pre=1.4884% post=1.0869% MFE=1.1358% MAE=-0.0469% RSI=64.56 pattern=normal_candle flags=['entry_good_follow_through']
- 2026-07-01T21:31:51.096229+00:00 LINK entry=7.4504 quality=bad pre=1.0292% post=-0.3691% MFE=1.1275% MAE=-1.9811% RSI=75.39 pattern=normal_candle flags=['entry_likely_chased_after_pre_move', 'entry_overbought_rsi', 'entry_poor_immediate_adverse_excursion']
- 2026-07-01T23:50:54.064920+00:00 LINK entry=7.3562 quality=neutral pre=-0.2966% post=2.5094% MFE=2.6332% MAE=-0.7259% RSI=46.52 pattern=normal_candle flags=[]
- 2026-07-02T03:29:48.261344+00:00 LINK entry=7.46865 quality=bad pre=0.9693% post=-0.4131% MFE=1.0879% MAE=-0.5429% RSI=70.18 pattern=normal_candle flags=['entry_overbought_rsi']
- 2026-07-02T09:38:24.799481+00:00 LINK entry=7.5828 quality=good pre=1.4899% post=4.1911% MFE=4.3520% MAE=-0.1820% RSI=76.30 pattern=normal_candle flags=['entry_overbought_rsi', 'entry_good_follow_through']
- 2026-07-02T12:15:49.427121+00:00 LINK entry=7.687 quality=bad pre=2.5417% post=0.5451% MFE=3.3745% MAE=-0.0911% RSI=89.07 pattern=bullish_reclaim_wick flags=['entry_likely_chased_after_pre_move', 'entry_overbought_rsi', 'entry_good_follow_through']
- 2026-07-02T13:25:26.125530+00:00 LINK entry=7.80155 quality=bad pre=2.4042% post=-0.1327% MFE=1.8567% MAE=-0.9543% RSI=94.34 pattern=normal_candle flags=['entry_likely_chased_after_pre_move', 'entry_overbought_rsi']
- 2026-07-02T13:41:34.715752+00:00 LINK entry=7.89845 quality=bad pre=4.0730% post=-1.6174% MFE=0.6071% MAE=-2.1694% RSI=95.98 pattern=normal_candle flags=['entry_likely_chased_after_pre_move', 'entry_overbought_rsi', 'entry_poor_immediate_adverse_excursion']
- 2026-07-02T14:42:06.814490+00:00 LINK entry=7.7874 quality=bad pre=1.9922% post=-0.0745% MFE=0.4186% MAE=-0.7743% RSI=66.04 pattern=normal_candle flags=['entry_poor_immediate_adverse_excursion']
- 2026-07-03T10:56:01.092394+00:00 LINK entry=7.87195 quality=bad pre=0.9683% post=-0.1226% MFE=0.3754% MAE=-0.6980% RSI=61.26 pattern=normal_candle flags=['entry_poor_immediate_adverse_excursion']
- 2026-07-03T19:39:36.102250+00:00 LINK entry=7.9737 quality=bad pre=1.4193% post=-0.0439% MFE=0.8077% MAE=-0.5305% RSI=92.88 pattern=indecision_doji_like flags=['entry_likely_chased_after_pre_move', 'entry_overbought_rsi']
- 2026-07-04T15:11:52.316117+00:00 LINK entry=8.0582 quality=bad pre=1.8966% post=0.0720% MFE=1.5115% MAE=-0.2197% RSI=76.98 pattern=normal_candle flags=['entry_likely_chased_after_pre_move', 'entry_overbought_rsi', 'entry_good_follow_through']
- 2026-07-04T17:53:15.774662+00:00 LINK entry=8.1525 quality=bad pre=2.0928% post=-1.4020% MFE=0.3373% MAE=-1.4315% RSI=83.61 pattern=normal_candle flags=['entry_likely_chased_after_pre_move', 'entry_overbought_rsi', 'entry_poor_immediate_adverse_excursion']
- 2026-07-04T20:20:33.774691+00:00 LINK entry=8.0445 quality=neutral pre=-0.7053% post=0.0000% MFE=0.0000% MAE=0.0000% RSI=42.51 pattern=normal_candle flags=[]

## Exits
- 2026-06-30T12:47:47.207627+00:00 LINK stop_loss exit=7.1561 net=-0.1567034532242647058823529412 quality=bad pre=-2.0109% post=0.4290% missed_upside=1.6014% avoided_drawdown=-0.4891% RSI=17.92 pattern=normal_candle flags=['exit_possible_stop_too_tight_or_bad_entry']
- 2026-06-30T14:02:32.609792+00:00 LINK profit_target exit=7.262 net=0.1432781743992352941176470588 quality=good pre=-0.4260% post=-0.9777% missed_upside=-0.0923% avoided_drawdown=-1.9031% RSI=44.25 pattern=normal_candle flags=['exit_good_profit_protection']
- 2026-06-30T14:56:42.006660+00:00 LINK stop_loss exit=7.1576 net=-0.1477384659597647058823529412 quality=bad pre=-1.5339% post=0.9053% missed_upside=1.0157% avoided_drawdown=-0.4722% RSI=37.93 pattern=normal_candle flags=['exit_possible_stop_too_tight_or_bad_entry']
- 2026-07-01T02:36:12.087872+00:00 LINK profit_target exit=7.24585 net=0.1202816066392352941176470588 quality=bad pre=1.1369% post=-0.6259% missed_upside=1.2483% avoided_drawdown=-0.7860% RSI=63.74 pattern=normal_candle flags=['exit_too_early_missed_followthrough', 'exit_good_profit_protection']
- 2026-07-01T14:11:29.198716+00:00 LINK profit_target exit=7.3446 net=0.1427282261057352941176470588 quality=bad pre=1.9261% post=0.5242% missed_upside=1.5440% avoided_drawdown=-0.5936% RSI=78.99 pattern=normal_candle flags=['exit_too_early_missed_followthrough', 'exit_into_overbought_strength']
- 2026-07-01T15:23:17.041151+00:00 LINK profit_target exit=7.4431 net=0.1346994006507352941176470588 quality=good pre=2.8544% post=-1.0090% missed_upside=-0.0013% avoided_drawdown=-1.2347% RSI=78.88 pattern=normal_candle flags=['exit_good_profit_protection', 'exit_into_overbought_strength']
- 2026-07-01T17:04:25.693657+00:00 LINK stop_loss exit=7.3557 net=-0.1525674620157647058823529412 quality=bad pre=1.4884% post=1.0903% missed_upside=1.1393% avoided_drawdown=-0.0435% RSI=64.56 pattern=normal_candle flags=['exit_possible_stop_too_tight_or_bad_entry']
- 2026-07-01T21:30:50.511801+00:00 LINK profit_target exit=7.4491 net=0.1263766884057352941176470588 quality=bad pre=1.0292% post=-0.3517% missed_upside=1.1451% avoided_drawdown=-1.9640% RSI=75.39 pattern=normal_candle flags=['exit_too_early_missed_followthrough', 'exit_good_profit_protection', 'exit_into_overbought_strength']
- 2026-07-01T23:49:53.532291+00:00 LINK stop_loss exit=7.35515 net=-0.1541849386792647058823529412 quality=bad pre=-0.2966% post=2.5241% missed_upside=2.6478% avoided_drawdown=-0.7117% RSI=46.52 pattern=normal_candle flags=['exit_possible_stop_too_tight_or_bad_entry']
- 2026-07-02T03:28:47.956210+00:00 LINK profit_target exit=7.48015 net=0.1725330045737352941176470588 quality=bad pre=0.9693% post=-0.5662% missed_upside=0.9325% avoided_drawdown=-0.6958% RSI=70.18 pattern=normal_candle flags=['exit_too_early_missed_followthrough', 'exit_good_profit_protection', 'exit_into_overbought_strength']
- 2026-07-02T09:37:24.228999+00:00 LINK profit_target exit=7.58625 net=0.1603623447722352941176470588 quality=bad pre=1.4899% post=4.1437% missed_upside=4.3045% avoided_drawdown=-0.2274% RSI=76.30 pattern=normal_candle flags=['exit_too_early_missed_followthrough', 'exit_into_overbought_strength']
- 2026-07-02T12:14:48.891523+00:00 LINK profit_target exit=7.6835 net=0.1331773137422352941176470588 quality=bad pre=2.7259% post=1.6828% missed_upside=3.4216% avoided_drawdown=-0.4685% RSI=89.47 pattern=normal_candle flags=['exit_too_early_missed_followthrough', 'exit_into_overbought_strength']
- 2026-07-02T13:24:25.584391+00:00 LINK profit_target exit=7.7845 net=0.1266030717132352941176470588 quality=bad pre=2.4042% post=0.0861% missed_upside=2.0798% avoided_drawdown=-0.7374% RSI=94.34 pattern=normal_candle flags=['exit_too_early_missed_followthrough', 'exit_good_profit_protection', 'exit_into_overbought_strength']
- 2026-07-02T13:40:34.190099+00:00 LINK profit_target exit=7.9079 net=0.1370564700217352941176470588 quality=good pre=4.0730% post=-1.7350% missed_upside=0.4869% avoided_drawdown=-2.2863% RSI=95.98 pattern=normal_candle flags=['exit_good_profit_protection', 'exit_into_overbought_strength']
- 2026-07-02T14:41:06.279971+00:00 LINK stop_loss exit=7.8034 net=-0.1459102133137647058823529412 quality=neutral pre=1.9922% post=-0.2794% missed_upside=0.2127% avoided_drawdown=-0.9778% RSI=66.04 pattern=normal_candle flags=[]
- 2026-07-03T10:55:00.713693+00:00 LINK profit_target exit=7.8826 net=0.1215439623962352941176470588 quality=good pre=0.9683% post=-0.2575% missed_upside=0.2398% avoided_drawdown=-0.8322% RSI=61.26 pattern=normal_candle flags=['exit_good_profit_protection']
- 2026-07-03T19:38:35.576916+00:00 LINK profit_target exit=7.97185 net=0.1266788973012352941176470588 quality=bad pre=1.4193% post=-0.0207% missed_upside=0.8310% avoided_drawdown=-0.5074% RSI=92.88 pattern=indecision_doji_like flags=['exit_too_early_missed_followthrough', 'exit_into_overbought_strength']
- 2026-07-04T15:10:51.777766+00:00 LINK profit_target exit=8.07025 net=0.1202615494437352941176470588 quality=bad pre=1.8966% post=-0.0774% missed_upside=1.3599% avoided_drawdown=-0.3686% RSI=76.98 pattern=normal_candle flags=['exit_too_early_missed_followthrough', 'exit_into_overbought_strength']
- 2026-07-04T17:52:15.231355+00:00 LINK profit_target exit=8.15755 net=0.1226925462187352941176470588 quality=good pre=2.0928% post=-1.4631% missed_upside=0.2752% avoided_drawdown=-1.4925% RSI=83.61 pattern=normal_candle flags=['exit_good_profit_protection', 'exit_into_overbought_strength']
- 2026-07-04T20:19:33.422529+00:00 LINK stop_loss exit=8.0455 net=-0.1579363048317647058823529412 quality=neutral pre=-0.7053% post=0.0000% missed_upside=0.0000% avoided_drawdown=0.0000% RSI=42.51 pattern=normal_candle flags=[]

## Safety
- Read-only: no orders, no signing, no live execution.